Falling up the cliff
I sat through a fascinating presentation recently on generational behaviours. I was thinking about the implications of six generations being alive at the same time, until I saw a graph much like the one here.
It was I felt, not sufficient, as it developed from a simple extrapolation of what we know, now. What would this graph be like if science and technology could deliver a significant extension of living well? After all it has done it before so why not again? What if around 2030 we lived well to about 130? By 2100 we could expect it would go to at least 150. The idea is quite profound and it would sure change a lot of things. What it might mean, for example, is that people in their 50’s, leaving aside generational equity issues, should get interested in 2050 scenarios as they will still be around. By the way, my life extension thinking is probably at the more conservative end of what might be possible. The graph now looks very different. There is a rising cliff at 130 and clearly we would need to redefine retirement, assuming that we have some idea of what future work looks like. However I have no idea what the retirement graph would do!
What this quantum lift in life expectancy does is create a sudden upwards shift. This cliff, or disruption, would require us to rethink what we know, what’s important, and what we value. Perhaps we may even be faced with the interesting question of when and where life should finish! So are these cliffs common? Well yes they are.
Take for example the easily seen cliff of global population change, a trend so significant, that it will reshape where and how we live, what we eat, and how we will treat our environment.
Future technologies create many more, and there are a few sustainability and energy disruptions in front of us as well. As we can see, from the life extension idea, and the growth in world population example, we don’t spend a lot of time anticipating what life might be like at the top of these cliffs. But we should! And in my view very soon, as some of the issues will take time to work through. No doubt we’ll stumble through it somehow – hence the title of this blog!
Our ability to know what life at the top of the cliff is like is a little limited. But I think its something we should all start getting interested in. After all is it really smart to live life in the fast lane, while running headlong into the bottom of the cliff, at the same time?
It was I felt, not sufficient, as it developed from a simple extrapolation of what we know, now. What would this graph be like if science and technology could deliver a significant extension of living well? After all it has done it before so why not again? What if around 2030 we lived well to about 130? By 2100 we could expect it would go to at least 150. The idea is quite profound and it would sure change a lot of things. What it might mean, for example, is that people in their 50’s, leaving aside generational equity issues, should get interested in 2050 scenarios as they will still be around. By the way, my life extension thinking is probably at the more conservative end of what might be possible. The graph now looks very different. There is a rising cliff at 130 and clearly we would need to redefine retirement, assuming that we have some idea of what future work looks like. However I have no idea what the retirement graph would do!
What this quantum lift in life expectancy does is create a sudden upwards shift. This cliff, or disruption, would require us to rethink what we know, what’s important, and what we value. Perhaps we may even be faced with the interesting question of when and where life should finish! So are these cliffs common? Well yes they are.
Take for example the easily seen cliff of global population change, a trend so significant, that it will reshape where and how we live, what we eat, and how we will treat our environment.
Future technologies create many more, and there are a few sustainability and energy disruptions in front of us as well. As we can see, from the life extension idea, and the growth in world population example, we don’t spend a lot of time anticipating what life might be like at the top of these cliffs. But we should! And in my view very soon, as some of the issues will take time to work through. No doubt we’ll stumble through it somehow – hence the title of this blog!
Our ability to know what life at the top of the cliff is like is a little limited. But I think its something we should all start getting interested in. After all is it really smart to live life in the fast lane, while running headlong into the bottom of the cliff, at the same time?
posted by Mike at 9:17 PM
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